Launch bets
Predict the first-week peak. Don’t go over.
How it works
1 unique email verification = 1 ticket. Historical verifications count. Imports and rechecks do not. Tickets cannot be purchased, transferred, redeemed for money or used for prizes.
Anyone signed in can start a shared pot using an unreleased game's Steam App ID. Bet until release; the site records the next seven days and pays out automatically. One hidden prediction per account per game. Your first bet locks the guess; add tickets until release.
New bets and results may appear in our Discord channel with your chat nickname and tickets. Your guess stays hidden until closing.
Over the peak: zero payout. Otherwise your share depends on both the tickets risked and the distance below the peak. An exact guess has the highest weight per ticket.
weight = tickets ÷ (1 + gap ÷ tolerance)²
tolerance = max(1, ceil(peak × 5%))The entire pot, including winners’ stakes and any carryover, is divided by those weights. Whole-ticket rounding uses largest remainders, then closest guess and entry ID for exact rounding ties. No house fee. Winning tickets can be used again.
| Guess | Returned |
|---|---|
| 650 · exact | 19 tickets |
| 649 | 18 tickets |
| 600 | 3 tickets |
| 651 · over | 0 tickets |
If everyone overshoots, the pot becomes a bonus for the next new game. If no other player joins, your stake is returned after launch week and the bonus carries forward. Cancelled rounds or unreliable data also refund stakes.
Result source: the highest one-minute sample recorded from Steam during the 168 hours after we first observe the public release. Early Access counts as release. This is our sampled peak, not a claim to SteamDB’s historical peak. Steam outages never become zero counts. Settlement requires at least 95% coverage, no gap longer than 15 minutes, and release detection within 10 minutes of a successful unreleased check. New rounds follow rules v2; existing older rounds retain their original terms.